Covid-19, 8/31/2020

OK, so it’s been almost two months since I’ve run the numbers. It hasn’t been as bad as everybody is claiming so I haven’t been doing the numbers as regularly, but I saw some posts today claiming that the CDC has dropped the Covid-19 deaths from over 150,000 to under 10,000. Keep in mind that the numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed/reported cases, including for seasonal influenza. Per the numbers below, you are still more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza (6.2% mortality) than you are if you get Covid-19 (3.5% mortality at the worst case, but using the latest revision from the CDC the mortality is as low as 0.112%). I admit that Covid-19 is more contagious because it is new to humans and we have no natural immunity to it, but that is why herd immunity is so important. When enough healthy people get it, recover, and develop immunity while the at risk population self isolates, then the virus won’t really be able to continue to spread because the vast majority of potential hosts will have already developed the immunity (that’s the whole point of herd immunity). My opinion really hasn’t changed toward doom and gloom, even with all the “horror stories” I’ve been reading about this virus. Largely because I’m fairly certain my family has already had it. Read my previous posts for more on that.

As of August 22, 2020 there were 45,920 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with a P&I Mortality rate of 6.2%. They have changed how the P&I mortality is tracked now, the P&I mortality is now for the week, not averaged over the season. This does not count Covid-19, which does not show up on the standard flu test (if you scroll through the links, you’ll see what types of virus they identify and include in these numbers).

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/whoAllregt_phl34.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

With 21,294,845 total cases and 761,779 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 3.5%. This is from the WHO as of 8/16/2020, 10:00 CET. The mortality numbers are dropping here (was 6.6% back in May).

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200816-covid-19-sitrep-209.pdf?sfvrsn=5dde1ca2_2

With 25,451,734 total cases and 851,631 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 3.3%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 8/31/2020, 15:18 GMT. The mortality numbers are dropping here as well (was 6.4% back in May).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 5,258,565 total cases and 167,201 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 3.18%. This is from the WHO as of 8/16/2020, 10:00 CET. The mortality numbers are dropping here as well (was 6.01% back in May)

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200816-covid-19-sitrep-209.pdf?sfvrsn=5dde1ca2_2

With 5,934,824 total cases and 182,149 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 3.1%. This is from the CDC as of 8/30/2020. If you go to this link and click on “About the Data” you’ll see that these numbers include “both confirmed and probable cases and deaths”. Keep this in mind when you look at the next section.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fcases-in-us.html#cases
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The reason I think this is important to track is because while the numbers above include confirmed and probable cases, there are no comments about updating the numbers as information is received, but this provisional list says “Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS.” This makes this list much more believable as it is revised as new information is received. So, the “provisional” numbers state that there are 6,655 total “deaths involving influenza, with or without COVID-19 or Pnemonia, includes COVID-19 or Pneumonia” as of 7/2/2020. If we use this number, that drops the mortality to 0.112%.

Again, this includes ALL INFLUENZA DEATHS INVOLVING COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw

Now, to be fair, I may be interpreting that wrong, so let’s look at this in absolute worst case numbers for all deaths involving COVID-19. 168,864 deaths involving COVID-19 equals a 2.8% mortality. Even looking at it this way, this is MUCH lower than they have been claiming all along.

With 6,180,197 total cases and 187,365 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 3.0%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 8/31/2020, 15:18 GMT.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 116,697 total cases and 2,574 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 2.2%. This is from SC DHEC as of 8/30/2020, 13:00 EST.

https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-testing-data-projections-covid-19

Here are the “provisional” numbers from the CDC… With 100 total influenza deaths (with or without Covid-19), the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 0.086%. This is from CDC as of 8/31/2020. But again, since I could be reading that wrong, the total SC deaths involving COVID-19 is 2,160 which gives us a mortality of 1.85%.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw

So, the major takeaway today is that the “provisional” numbers are updated as information is received, but the WHO, worldometer, etc numbers are not updated. I’m going to use the “provisional” numbers because they’re correcting assumptions as they get confirmations, rather than just running with the assumptions.

Another thing we need to be reminded of when we’re looking at the numbers is that not all patients presenting with Covid-19 symptoms are getting tested for Covid-19. Most of them are not, whereas pretty much everyone that goes to the dr with flu-like symptoms gets tested for the flu. This is also only “counting” the people that were sick enough to actually go to the dr. We won’t have any idea what the real numbers might actually be until they screen everyone for antibodies, and even then we won’t really know because the antibody tests are notoriously inaccurate.

I tried to find numbers for previous years; how many people were tested and how many were positive. I found numbers for positive flu tests, but I didn’t really find numbers for people actually tested. They had numbers for “medical visits”, numbers for “hospitalizations”, and numbers for “deaths”. These charts don’t make much sense to me. I’m going to ponder these charts and see if I can get any understandings. Here’s a link to the 2018-2019 flu season numbers, see what you can make of it.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Covid-19, 7/5/2020

OK, so it’s been over a month since I’ve run the numbers, haven’t had time as I’ve had work to do. I’m just trying to see if it’s still as bad as everyone’s claiming (spoiler, it’s not). Keep in mind that the numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed/reported cases, including for seasonal influenza. Per the numbers below, you are still more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza (5.1% mortality) than you are if you get Covid-19 (~4.7% mortality). I admit that Covid-19 is more contagious because it is new to humans and we have no natural immunity to it, but that is why herd immunity is so important. When enough healthy people get it, recover, and develop immunity while the at risk population self isolates, then the virus won’t really be able to continue to spread because the vast majority of potential hosts will have already developed the immunity (that’s the whole point of herd immunity). My opinion really hasn’t changed toward doom and gloom, even with all the “horror stories” I’ve been reading about this virus. Largely because I’m fairly certain my family has already had it. Read my previous posts for more on that.

As of June 27, 2020 there were 45,639 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with a P&I Mortality rate of 5.1%. They have changed how the P&I mortality is tracked now, the P&I mortality is now for the week, not averaged over the season. This does not count Covid-19, which does not show up on the standard flu test (if you scroll through the links, you’ll see what types of virus they identify and include in these numbers).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

With 11,125,245 total cases and 528,204 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 4.7%. This is from the WHO as of 7/5/2020, 10:00 CET. The mortality numbers are dropping here (was 6.6% back in May).
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200705-covid-19-sitrep-167.pdf

With 11,496,761 total cases and 535,379 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 4.7%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 7/5/2020, 19:40 GMT. The mortality numbers are dropping here as well (was 6.4% back in May).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 2,776,366 total cases and 129,226 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 4.7%. This is from the WHO as of 7/5/2020, 10:00 CET. The mortality numbers are dropping here as well (was 6.01% back in May).
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200705-covid-19-sitrep-167.pdf

With 2,841,906 total cases and 129,576 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 4.5%. This is from the CDC as of 7/5/2020. If you go to this link and click on “About the Data” you’ll see that these numbers include “both confirmed and probable cases and deaths”. Keep this in mind when you look at the next section.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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The reason I think this is important to track is because while the numbers above include confirmed and probable cases, there are no comments about updating the numbers as information is received, but this provisional list says “Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS.” This makes this list much more believable as it is revised as new information is received. So, the “provisional” numbers state that there are 112,700 total Covid-19 deaths as of 7/2/2020. If we use this number, that drops the mortality to 3.9%.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

With 2,970,468 total cases and 132,510 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 4.5%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 7/5/2020, 19:40 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 44,717 total cases and 813 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 1.8%. This is from SC DHEC as of 7/5/2020, 11:45 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

Here are the “provisional” numbers from the CDC… With 661 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 1.5%. This is from CDC as of 7/5/2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Columns – State; Covid-19 Deaths; Deaths from all causes; Percent of expected deaths; Pneumonia Deaths; Deaths with Pneumonia and Covid-19; Influenza Deaths

So, the major takeaway today is that the “provisional” numbers are updated as information is received, but the WHO, worldometer, etc numbers are not updated. I’m going to use the “provisional” numbers because they’re correcting assumptions as they get confirmations, rather than just running with the assumptions.

Another thing we need to be reminded of when we’re looking at the numbers is that not all patients presenting with Covid-19 symptoms are getting tested for Covid-19. Most of them are not, whereas pretty much everyone that goes to the dr with flu-like symptoms gets tested for the flu. This is also only “counting” the people that were sick enough to actually go to the dr. We won’t have any idea what the real numbers might actually be until they screen everyone for antibodies, and even then we won’t really know because the antibody tests are notoriously inaccurate.

I tried to find numbers for previous years; how many people were tested and how many were positive. I found numbers for positive flu tests, but I didn’t really find numbers for people actually tested. They had numbers for “medical visits”, numbers for “hospitalizations”, and numbers for “deaths”. These charts don’t make much sense to me. I’m going to ponder these charts and see if I can get any understandings. Here’s a link to the 2018-2019 flu season numbers, see what you can make of it.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Covid-19, 5/22/2020

I’m a couple days later than normal, I still have to work and it’s been heavy the last couple weeks, finally got a minute to breathe. So… time for my Covid-19 review for 5/22/2020.

My primary issues with this pandemic are: 1) People are stupid. Mention of a pandemic and you can’t find toilet paper or cleaning supplies anywhere for several weeks/months… did those people not wipe their ass or clean their stuff prior? 2) The government has absolutely ZERO authority to “lock down” the country. They can recommend, even strongly urge, people to stay home, but they cannot legally force any healthy American to do it, period. I’ve seen a lot of articles where judges are striking down governors mandates, you’ll have to search for them on your own.

The numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed/reported cases, including for seasonal influenza. Per the numbers below, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza than you are if you get Covid-19. I admit that Covid-19 may be more contagious because it is new to humans and we have no natural immunity to it, but that is why herd immunity is so important. When enough healthy people get it, recover, and develop immunity while the at risk population self isolates, then the virus won’t really be able to continue to spread because the vast majority of potential hosts will have already developed the immunity (that’s the whole point of herd immunity). My opinion really hasn’t changed toward doom and gloom, even with all the “horror stories” I’ve been reading about this virus. Largely because I’m fairly certain my family has already had it. Read my previous posts for more on that.

As of May 9, 2020 there were 248,546 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with a P&I Mortality rate of 7.3%, with approximately 18,143 deaths from the seasonal flu. This does not count Covid-19, which does not show up on the standard flu test (if you scroll through the links, you’ll see what types of virus they identify and include in these numbers). There are several reasons, IMO, that this is important: Out of the 1,387,506 people that went to the Dr. and were tested since September 29th for “flu like symptoms”, ONLY 17.9% of them actually tested positive for the flu. How many of those other 82.1% of cases were actually Covid-19? This data is hard to follow. The mortality rate given this week means many of the deaths previously attributed to pneumonia and influenza have been reclassified as some other cause. The number of approximate deaths is lower this week than it was last week. We should expect this type of number change from Covid-19 as well, and the “probable” death numbers below reflect this change while the other Covid-19 trackers are not accounting for these revisions.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

With 4,893,186 total cases and 323,256 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.6%. This is from the WHO as of 5/21/2020, 10:00 CET. The mortality numbers are dropping here (was 6.9% last week).
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200521-covid-19-sitrep-122.pdf

With 5,245,210 total cases and 336,006 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.4%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 5/22/2020, 16:06 GMT. The mortality numbers are dropping here as well (was 6.7% last week).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 1,501,876 total cases and 90,203 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 6.01%. This is from the WHO as of 5/21/2020, 10:00 CET. The mortality numbers are dropping here as well (was 6.02% last week).
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200521-covid-19-sitrep-122.pdf

With 1,551,095 total cases and 93,061 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 6.00%. This is from the CDC as of 5/21/2020, 16:00 EST. If you go to this link and click on “About the Data” you’ll see that these numbers include “both confirmed and probable cases and deaths”. Keep this in mind when you look at the next section.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

The reason I think this is important to track is because while the numbers above include confirmed and probable cases, there are no comments about updating the numbers as information is received, but this provisional list says “Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS.” This makes this list much more believable as it is revised as new information is received. So, the “provisional” numbers state that there are 73,639 total Covid-19 deaths as of 5/22/2020. If we use this number, that drops the mortality to 4.75%.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

With 1,627,409 total cases and 96,683 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 5.94%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 5/22/2020, 16:06 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 9,379 total cases and 416 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 4.44%. This is from SC DHEC as of 5/21/2020, 19:52 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

Here are the “provisional” numbers from the CDC… With 339 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 3.61%. This is from CDC as of 5/22/2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

So, the major takeaway today is that the “provisional” numbers are updated as information is received, but the WHO, worldometer, etc numbers are not updated. I’m going to use the “provisional” numbers because they’re correcting assumptions as they get confirmations, rather than just running with the assumptions.

Another thing we need to be reminded of when we’re looking at the numbers is that not all patients presenting with Covid-19 symptoms are getting tested for Covid-19. Most of them are not, whereas pretty much everyone that goes to the dr with flu-like symptoms gets tested for the flu. That brings me back to the 82.1% of people that got tested for influenza that came back negative (1,138,960)… how many of them were Covid-19? Run those numbers on your own, but if even half of them (569,480) were actually Covid-19 patients, that drops the mortality for Covid-19 (3.47%). This is only “counting” the people that were sick enough to actually go to the dr. We won’t have any idea what the real numbers might actually be until they start screening for antibodies.

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I tried to find numbers for previous years; how many people were tested and how many were positive. I found numbers for positive flu tests, but I didn’t really find numbers for people actually tested. They had numbers for “medical visits”, numbers for “hospitalizations”, and numbers for “deaths”. These charts don’t make much sense to me. I’m going to ponder these charts and see if I can get any understandings. Here’s a link to the 2018-2019 flu season numbers, see what you can make of it.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/whoAllregt_cl20.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200521-covid-19-sitrep-122.pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200521-covid-19-sitrep-122.pdf
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-testing-data-projections-covid-19
Columns – State; Covid-19 Deaths; Deaths from all causes; Percent of expected deaths; Pneumonia Deaths; Deaths with Pneumonia and Covid-19; Influenza Deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Covid-19, 5/14/2020

I’m a couple days later than normal, I still have to work and it’s been heavy the last couple weeks, finally got a minute to breathe. So… time for my Covid-19 review for 5/14/2020.

My primary issues with this pandemic are: 1) People are stupid. Mention of a pandemic and you can’t find toilet paper or cleaning supplies anywhere for several weeks/months… did those people not wipe their ass or clean their stuff prior? 2) The government has absolutely ZERO authority to “lock down” the country. They can recommend, even strongly urge, people to stay home, but they cannot legally force any healthy American to do it, period. I’ve seen other articles, but I don’t have all day to scroll for the links, so here’s just one: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down Wisconsin’s stay-at-home order that closed businesses to limit spread of coronavirus.

The numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed/reported cases, including for seasonal influenza. Per the numbers below, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza than you are if you get Covid-19. I admit that Covid-19 may be more contagious because it is new to humans and we have no natural immunity to it, but that is why herd immunity is so important. When enough healthy people get it, recover, and develop immunity while the at risk population self isolates, then the virus won’t really be able to continue to spread because the vast majority of potential hosts will have already developed the immunity (that’s the whole point of herd immunity). My opinion really hasn’t changed toward doom and gloom, even with all the “horror stories” I’ve been reading about this virus. Largely because I’m fairly certain my family has already had it. Read my previous posts for more on that.

As of May 2, 2020 there were 248,486 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with a P&I Mortality rate of 7.4%, with approximately 18,388 deaths from the seasonal flu. This does not count Covid-19, which does not show up on the standard flu test (if you scroll through the links, you’ll see what types of virus they identify and include in these numbers). There are several reasons, IMO, that this is important: Out of the 1,373,230 people that went to the Dr. and were tested since September 29th for “flu like symptoms”, ONLY 18.1% of them actually tested positive for the flu. How many of those other 81.9% of cases were actually Covid-19? This data is hard to follow. The mortality rate given this week means many of the deaths previously attributed to pneumonia and influenza have been reclassified as some other cause. The number of approximate deaths is lower this week than it was last week. We should expect this type of number change from Covid-19 as well, and the “probable” death numbers below reflect this change while the other Covid-19 trackers are not accounting for these revisions.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

With 4,170,424 total cases and 287,399 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.9%. This is from the WHO as of 5/13/2020, 10:00 CET. The mortality numbers are dropping here (was 7.12% last week).
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200513-covid-19-sitrep-114.pdf

With 4,471,968 total cases and 299,619 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.7%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 5/14/2020, 15:50 GMT. The mortality numbers are dropping here as well (was 6.94% last week).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 1,322,054 total cases and 79,634 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 6.02%. This is from the WHO as of 5/13/2020, 10:00 CET. The mortality numbers are dropping here as well (was 6.9% last week).
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200513-covid-19-sitrep-114.pdf

With 1,364,061 total cases and 82,246 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 6.03%. This is from the CDC as of 5/13/2020, 16:00 EST. If you go to this link and click on “About the Data” you’ll see that these numbers include “both confirmed and probable cases and deaths”. Keep this in mind when you look at the next section.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

The reason I think this is important to track is because while the numbers above include confirmed and probable cases, there are no comments about updating the numbers as information is received, but this provisional list says “Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS.” This makes this list much more believable as it is revised as new information is received. So, the “provisional” numbers state that there are 56,977 total Covid-19 deaths as of 5/14/2020. If we use this number, that drops the mortality to 4.18%.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw

With 1,435,234 total cases and 85,408 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 5.95%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 5/14/2020, 15:52 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 8,030 total cases and 362 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 4.51%. This is from SC DHEC as of 5/13/2020, 17:01 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

Here are the “provisional” numbers from the CDC… With 198 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 2.47%. This is from CDC as of 5/14/2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw

So, the major takeaway today is that the “provisional” numbers are updated as information is received, but the WHO, worldometer, etc numbers are not updated. I’m going to use the “provisional” numbers because they’re correcting assumptions as they get confirmations, rather than just running with the assumptions.

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Another thing we need to be reminded of when we’re looking at the numbers is that not all patients presenting with Covid-19 symptoms are getting tested for Covid-19. Most of them are not, whereas pretty much everyone that goes to the dr with flu-like symptoms gets tested for the flu. That brings me back to the 81.9% of people that got tested for influenza that came back negative (1,124,744)… how many of them were Covid-19? Run those numbers on your own, but if even half of them (562,372) were actually Covid-19 patients, that drops the mortality for Covid-19 (2.96%). This is only “counting” the people that were sick enough to actually go to the dr. We won’t have any idea what the real numbers might actually be until they start screening for antibodies. I also haven’t looked at previous years numbers for seasonal influenza to see what percentage of people that got tested came back positive. Maybe I’ll try to do that next week. I’m curious how this years seasonal influenza patients/tests compare to previous, non-pandemic years.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/whoAllregt_cl18.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200513-covid-19-sitrep-114.pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200513-covid-19-sitrep-114.pdf
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-testing-data-projections-covid-19
Columns – State; Covid-19 Deaths; Deaths from all causes; Percent of expected deaths; Pneumonia Deaths; Deaths with Pneumonia and Covid-19; Influenza Deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw

Covid-19, 5/4/2020

Time for my Covid-19 review for 5/4/2020, May the 4th be with you.

My primary issues with this pandemic are: 1) People are stupid. Mention of a pandemic and you can’t find toilet paper or cleaning supplies anywhere for several weeks/months… did those people not wipe their ass or clean their stuff prior? 2) The government has absolutely ZERO authority to “lock down” the country. They can recommend, even strongly urge, people to stay home, but they cannot legally force any healthy American to do it, period.

Wow, 2014, that was sooooo long ago, surely that’s not still true, so much has changed since then.

My numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed/reported cases, including for seasonal influenza. Per the numbers below, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza than you are if you get Covid-19. I admit that Covid-19 may be more contagious because it is new to humans and we have no natural immunity to it, but that is why herd immunity is so important. When enough healthy people get it, recover, and develop immunity while the at risk population self isolates, then the virus won’t really be able to continue to spread because the vast majority of potential hosts will have already developed the immunity (that’s the whole point of herd immunity).

I’ve had this opinion because, if you remember way back when I started doing these posts I mentioned the person that I’m pretty sure had it back in January/February, well, that person is my wife. The family and I went to New Orleans for the New Year. We got home and 2-3 weeks later the wife had flu-like symptoms for 3 days then a pretty bad, dry cough for several weeks. After 5 weeks of the cough she went to our doctor and got tested. Nothing came back on any of the tests (keep in mind that back then there was no available test for Covid-19, and even now it would cost me $200 to have my doctor test me for it). The dr put her on prednisone and the cough cleared up in another week. No one else in my household showed any real symptoms, although I felt a little under the weather for a couple days at one point. I went to the dr last week (for something completely unrelated) and we chatted about this. He’s pretty sure that he’s had it and there’s a very good chance that is what my wife had. We won’t know if we actually had it until there’s a test for antibodies readily available, but with all the evidence I’ve seen and all the reports I’ve read, I’m pretty sure I’ve already had it.

Now for the numbers:

As of April 25, 2020 there were 248,026 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with a P&I Mortality rate of 9.3%, with approximately 23,067 deaths from the seasonal flu. This does not count Covid-19, which does not show up on the standard flu test (if you scroll through the links, you’ll see what types of virus they identify and include in these numbers). There are several reasons, IMO, that this is important: Out of the 1,350,201 people that went to the Dr. and were tested since September 29th for “flu like symptoms”, ONLY 18.4% of them actually tested positive for the flu. How many of those other 81.6% of cases were actually Covid-19?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

With 3,349,786 total cases and 238,628 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 7.12%. This is from the WHO as of 5/3/2020, 10:00 CET.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200503-covid-19-sitrep-104.pdf

With 3,603,521 total cases and 250,047 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.94%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 5/4/2020, 16:33 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 1,122,486 total cases and 65,735 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 5.86%. This is from the CDC as of 5/3/2020, 16:00 EST. If you go to this link and click on “About the Data” you’ll see that these numbers include “both confirmed and probable cases and deaths”. Keep this in mind when you look at the next section.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

I’m going to start tracking this “Provisional” list now. The reason I think this is important to track is because while the numbers above include confirmed and probable cases, there are no comments about updating the numbers as information is received, but this provisional list says “Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS.” This makes this list much more believable as it is revised as new information is received. So, the “provisional” numbers state that there are 38,576 total Covid-19 deaths as of 5/2/2020. If we use this number, that drops the mortality to 3.44%.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw

With 1,194,434 total cases and 69,008 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 5.78%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 5/4/2020, 16:33 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 6,626 total cases and 275 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 4.15%. This is from SC DHEC as of 4/26/2020, 15:30 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

Here are the “provisional” numbers from the CDC… With 170 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 2.57%. This is from CDC as of 5/2/2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw

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So, the major takeaway today is that the “provisional” numbers are updated as information is received, but the WHO, worldometer, etc numbers are not updated. I’m going to use the “provisional” numbers because they’re correcting assumptions as they get confirmations, rather than just running with the assumptions.

One more thing to keep in mind. I’ve said this many times already, but… the first identified case of Covid-19 was apparently in China around December 1st, 2019. A single patient doesn’t go to a dr with a “bad flu”, get tested, come back negative and cause the doctor to instantly go, “oh, this is new, let’s figure out what it is, develop a test, and identify it!” I don’t know how many people need to show the same symptoms for something that isn’t identified by any existing tests before the medical field invests the time and money to identify what it is so they can start working to cure it, but I’m pretty sure it takes a decent number of cases. So, you’ve got a bunch of people that got sick enough to cause the Chinese to come up with a way to identify it, then someone was confirmed to have “it”. How many of those originally sick people infected others who infected others (with this virus that can have up to a 3 week incubation period)? Now, consider that prior to the current travel restrictions approximately 10,000 people traveled from China to the U.S. EVERY DAY. How many of those people had this “new” bug and how many people did they infect before it was even identified? This is another reason I’ve never been freaking out about this virus. This was here long before the lockdowns. Yes, you could get it and you could die. Hell, maybe I didn’t already have it and maybe I get it and die. But these lockdowns, IMO (based on some studies I’ve read that I didn’t keep the links to), are having absolutely ZERO effect on the virus spread, but they are having disastrous consequences to the economy… which in turn is having disastrous consequences to actual people who lived paycheck to paycheck before this bullshit started.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/whoAllregt_cl17.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200503-covid-19-sitrep-104.pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200503-covid-19-sitrep-104.pdf
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-testing-data-projections-covid-19
Columns – State; Covid-19 Deaths; Deaths from all causes; Percent of expected deaths; Pneumonia Deaths; Deaths with Pneumonia and Covid-19; Influenza Deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw

Covid-19, 4/27/2020

Time for my Covid-19 review for 4/27/2020.

There’s a lot of stuff coming out now that is really throwing the numbers… CDC is recording every death that is even remotely related to Covid-19 as a Covid-19 death, even if the virus is not the cause of death (comorbidity). I’m done listing links that show this, do your own research. At this point I’m just tracking the numbers.

My primary issues with this pandemic are: 1) People are stupid. Mention of a pandemic and you can’t find toilet paper or cleaning supplies anywhere for several weeks/months… did those people not wipe their ass or clean their stuff prior? 2) The government has absolutely ZERO authority to “lock down” the country. They can recommend, even strongly urge, people to stay home, but they cannot legally force any American to do it, period.

My numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed cases, including for seasonal influenza. My argument is that while Covid-19 is new to humans, the seasonal flu is still more fatal. My argument is also that many people will get seasonal influenza and/or Covid-19 and never know it, never get reported, and never get added to the numbers. Per the confirmed numbers below, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza than you are if you get Covid-19.

Now for the numbers:

As of April 18, 2020 there were over 248,005 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with a P&I Mortality rate of 11.4%, with approximately 29,507 deaths from the seasonal flu. This does not count Covid-19, which does not show up on the standard flu test (if you scroll through the link, you’ll see what types of virus they identify and include in these numbers). There are several reasons, IMO, that this is important: Out of the 1,338,895 people that went to the Dr. and were tested since September 29th for “flu like symptoms”, ONLY 18.5% of them actually tested positive for the flu. How many of those other 81.5% of cases were actually Covid-19?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

With 2,804,796 total cases and 193,710 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.91%. This is from the WHO as of 4/26/2020, 10:00 CET.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200426-sitrep-97-covid-19.pdf

With 3,029,746 total cases and 209,242 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.91%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 4/27/2020, 17:36 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 928,619 total cases and 52,459 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 5.65%. This is from the CDC as of 4/25/2020, 16:00 EST. Keep in mind, they are now including any death even remotely connected, even if the virus was not related to the actual death. Again, do your research for stories about this.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

With 995,288 total cases and 56,139 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 5.64%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 4/27/2020, 17:37 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 5,490 total cases and 174 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 3.17%. This is from SC DHEC as of 4/26/2020, 15:30 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

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You also need to keep in mind that while the mortality for Covid-19 is creeping upward, only a fraction of people going to the Dr with symptoms are getting tested. The only people that are being tested are essentially the ones being admitted to the hospitals because of their illness. This means that only the critically ill are being added to the numbers. That makes a HUGE difference in the mortality rate since the ones being added to the overall number are the ones more likely to die from it.

You should also note that the mortality for seasonal influenza has also risen a lot since I started paying attention to the numbers and making these posts back on March 16th. Just so you don’t have to search for it, P&I Mortality for seasonal influenza has risen from 7.1% on 3/16/2020 to 11.4% on 4/18/2020; an increase of 4.3%. Mortality for Covid-19 in the U.S. has risen from 1.95% on 3/16/2020 to 5.64% on 4/27/2020; an increase of 3.69%.

I do also want to note that while there have been more deaths in the U.S. attributed to Covid-19 (56,139) this year than to seasonal influenza (29,507), that doesn’t mean it’s as bad as they’re making it sound. Yes, this is new to humanity so there are no innate immunities so more people are getting it which is leading to a higher death total, but we’re not all going to die. Keep practicing good hygiene and your odds are pretty good.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/whoAllregt_cl16.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200426-sitrep-97-covid-19.pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-testing-data-projections-covid-19

Covid-19, 4/21/2020

Time for my Covid-19 review for 4/21/2020.

There’s a lot of stuff coming out now that is really throwing the numbers… CDC is recording every death that is even remotely related to Covid-19 as a Covid-19 death, even if the virus is not the cause of death (comorbidity). I’m done listing links that show this, do your own research. At this point I’m just tracking the numbers.

My primary issues with this pandemic are: 1) People are stupid. Mention of a pandemic and you can’t find toilet paper or cleaning supplies anywhere for several weeks/months… did those people not wipe their ass or clean their stuff prior? 2) The government has absolutely ZERO authority to “lock down” the country. They can recommend, even strongly urge, people to stay home, but they cannot legally force any American to do it, period.

My numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed cases, including for seasonal influenza. My argument is that while Covid-19 is new to humans, the seasonal flu is still more fatal. My argument is also that many people will get seasonal influenza and/or Covid-19 and never know it, never get reported, and never get added to the numbers. Per the confirmed numbers below, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza than you are if you get Covid-19.

Now for the numbers:

As of April 11, 2020 there were over 247,959 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with a P&I Mortality rate of 11.9%, meaning approximately 29,507 deaths from the seasonal flu. This does not count Covid-19, which does not show up on the standard flu test (if you scroll through the link, you’ll see what types of virus they identify and include in these numbers). There are several reasons, IMO, that this is important: Out of the 1,328,244 people that went to the Dr. and were tested since September 29th for “flu like symptoms”, ONLY 18.7% of them actually tested positive for the flu. How many of those other 81.3% of cases were actually Covid-19?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

With 2,314,621 total cases and 157,847 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.82%. This is from the WHO as of 4/20/2020, 10:00 CET.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200420-sitrep-91-covid-19.pdf

With 2,529,094 total cases and 174,573 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.90%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 4/21/2020, 17:03 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 746,625 total cases and 39,083 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 5.23%. This is from the CDC as of 4/20/2020, 16:00 EST. Keep in mind, they are now including any death even remotely connected, even if the virus was not related to the actual death. Again, do your research for stories about this. Hell, I just saw one article that said NYC added 4,000 deaths to the Covid-19 numbers and none of those 4,000 had been tested for Covid-19… I don’t know if that’s true or not, but how can we blindly trust that it’s not true?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

With 803,018 total cases and 43,558 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 5.42%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 4/21/2020, 17:03 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 4,439 total cases and 124 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 2.79%. This is from SC DHEC as of 4/20/2020, 16:00 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

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You also need to keep in mind that while the mortality for Covid-19 is creeping upward, only a fraction of people going to the Dr with symptoms are getting tested. The only people that are being tested are essentially the ones being admitted to the hospitals because of their illness. This means that only the critically ill are being added to the numbers. That makes a HUGE difference in the mortality rate since the ones being added to the overall number are the ones more likely to die from it.

You should also note that the mortality for seasonal influenza has also risen a lot since I started paying attention to the numbers and making these posts back on March 16th. Just so you don’t have to search for it, P&I Mortality for seasonal influenza has risen from 7.1% on 3/16/2020 to 11.9% on 4/11/2020; an increase of 4.8%. Mortality for Covid-19 in the U.S. has risen from 1.95% on 3/16/2020 to 5.23% on 4/20/2020; an increase of 3.28%.

I do also want to note that while there have been more deaths in the U.S. attributed to Covid-19 (39,083) this year than to seasonal influenza (29,507), that doesn’t mean it’s as bad as they’re making it sound. Yes, this is new to humanity so there are no innate immunities so more people are getting it which is leading to a higher death total, but we’re not all going to die. Keep practicing good hygiene and your odds are pretty good.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/whoAllregt_cl15.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200420-sitrep-91-covid-19.pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-testing-data-projections-covid-19

Covid-19, 4/13/2020

Time for my Covid-19 review for 4/13/2020. I’m done with my justifications for my opinions, but I’m still tracking the numbers, and actually putting thought into what they might mean.

There’s a lot of stuff coming out now that is really throwing the numbers… CDC is recording every death that is even remotely related to Covid-19 as a Covid-19 death, even if the virus is not the cause of death (comorbidity). I’m done listing links that show this, do your own research. At this point I’m just tracking the numbers.

My primary issues with this pandemic are: 1) People are stupid. Mention of a pandemic and you can’t find toilet paper or cleaning supplies anywhere for several weeks/months… did those people not wipe their ass or clean their stuff prior? 2) The government has absolutely ZERO authority to “lock down” the country. They can recommend, even strongly urge, people to stay home, but they cannot legally force any American to do it, period.

My numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed cases, including for seasonal influenza. My argument is that while Covid-19 is new to humans, the seasonal flu is still more fatal. My argument is also that many people will get seasonal influenza and/or Covid-19 and never know it, never get reported, and never get added to the numbers. Per the confirmed numbers below, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza than you are if you get Covid-19.

Now for the numbers:

As of April 4, 2020 there were over 247,785 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with a P&I Mortality rate of 10.0%, meaning approximately 24,779 deaths from the seasonal flu. This does not count Covid-19, which did not show up on the standard flu test (if you scroll through the link, you’ll see what types of virus they identify and include in these numbers). There are several reasons, IMO, that this is important: Out of the 1,303,970 people that went to the Dr. and were tested since September 29th for “flu like symptoms”, ONLY 19.0% of them actually tested positive for the flu. How many of those other 81.0% of cases were actually Covid-19?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

With 1,696,588 total cases and 105,952 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.25%. This is from the WHO as of 4/12/2020, 10:00 CET.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200412-sitrep-83-covid-19.pdf

With 1,895,611 total cases and 117,653 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.21%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 4/13/2020, 17:03 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 525,704 total cases and 20,486 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 3.90%. This is from the CDC as of 4/12/2020, 16:00 EST. Keep in mind, they are now including any death even remotely connected, even if the virus was not related to the actual death.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

With 573,138 total cases and 22,930 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 4.00%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 4/13/2020, 17:03 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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With 3,319 total cases and 82 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 2.47%. This is from SC DHEC as of 4/12/2020, 15:30 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

You also need to keep in mind that while the mortality for Covid-19 is creeping upward, only a fraction of people going to the Dr with symptoms are getting tested. The only people that are being tested are essentially the ones being admitted to the hospitals because of their illness. This means that only the critically ill are being added to the numbers. That makes a HUGE difference in the mortality rate since the ones being added to the overall number are the ones more likely to die from it.

Now, here’s a crazy thought experiment. Remember the number of people that went to the Dr for flu-like symptoms but didn’t test positive for the flu? That was 1,056,185 people with flu-like symptoms, but not the flu. If even 25% of those people had Covid-19 (264,046) and survived, the mortality rate for Covid-19 drops to 2.74%. If 75% of those people had Covid-19 (792,139) and survided, the mortality rate for Covid-19 drops to 1.68%. The thing to keep in mind here is that the infamous 0.6% mortality rate that has been thrown around by everyone saying that seasonal flu isn’t nearly as fatal as Covid-19 is based on assumptions by everyone involved. Granted, they may be educated assumptions, but they are still assumptions. That number is assuming that approximately 3,253,000 people will actually get the flu and never go to the Dr and never get tested (that’s about 1% of the US population). Now go back to the Princess Cruise that was stopped outside California. How many of those people never got Covid-19 (I believe it was 83%)? How many that got it were asymptomatic (I believe that was 50% asymptomatic)? I can’t find the links right now and my memory may be off, but I think those numbers are fairly close. All I’m saying is, I don’t think this is as bad as everyone is saying it is. It’s not good, but it’s not the end of the world. Remember, cruise lines are full of high-risk patients (elderly), so the actual infection of the general population will be much lower.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200412-sitrep-83-covid-19.pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/testing-sc-data-covid-19

My take on Covid-19, 4/6/2020

Time for my Covid-19 review for 4/6/2020. I’m done with my justifications for my opinions, but I’m still tracking the numbers, and actually putting thought into what they might mean.

Here’s a rather long video from a bona-fide expert. Basically saying that the quarantines and lockdowns were not the smart choice for anyone other than high-risk patients. He’s saying that if life had continued as normal for everyone (except the high-risk groups) this pandemic would have most likely died out in about 4 weeks. Go ahead and watch the video, I’ll wait.
https://kfyi.iheart.com/content/2020-04-04-dr-fauci-vs-this-guy-professor-knut-wittkowski-on-the-coronavirus/

My numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed cases, including for seasonal influenza. My argument is that while Covid-19 is new to humans, the seasonal flu is still more fatal. My argument is also that many people will get seasonal influenza and/or Covid-19 and never know it, never get reported, and never get added to the numbers. Per the confirmed numbers below, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza than you are if you get Covid-19.

Now for the numbers:

As of March 28, 2020 there were over 246,842 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with a P&I Mortality rate of 8.2%, meaning approximately 20,241 deaths from the seasonal flu. This does not count Covid-19, which did not show up on the standard flu test (if you scroll through the link, you’ll see what types of virus they identify and include in these numbers). There are several reasons, IMO, that this is important: Out of the 1,270,617 people that went to the Dr. and were tested since September 29th for “flu like symptoms”, ONLY 19.4% of them actually tested positive for the flu. How many of those other 80.6% of cases were actually Covid-19?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

With 1,133,758 total cases and 62,784 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 5.54%. This is from the WHO as of 4/5/2020, 10:00 CET.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200405-sitrep-76-covid-19.pdf

With 1,296,934 total cases and 71,263 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 5.49%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 4/6/2020, 15:44 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 304,826 total cases and 7,616 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 2.50%. This is from the CDC as of 4/5/2020, 16:00 EST.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

With 339,131 total cases and 9,689 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 2.86%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 4/6/2020, 15:44 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 2,049 total cases and 44 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 2.15%. This is from SC DHEC as of 4/5/2020, 16:00 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

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I realize that bad shit is happening in places because of this virus, so we have to do our part to not overload the services available. If you think you may have the flu, or Covid-19, check the symptoms (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html) and give your Dr. a call before you run to the ER and possibly infect others.

You also need to keep in mind that while the mortality for Covid-19 is creeping upward, only a fraction of people going to the Dr with symptoms are getting tested. The only people that are being tested are essentially the ones being admitted to the hospitals because of their illness. This means that only the critically ill are being added to the numbers. That makes a HUGE difference in the mortality rate since the ones being added to the overall number are the ones more likely to die from it.

Now, here’s a crazy thought experiment. Remember the number of people that went to the Dr for flu-like symptoms but didn’t test positive for the flu? That was 1,023,775 people with flu-like symptoms, but not the flu. If even 25% of those people had Covid-19 (255,944) and survived, the mortality rate for Covid-19 drops to 1.6%. If 75% of those people had Covid-19 (767,831) and survided, the mortality rate for Covid-19 drops to 0.88%. The thing to keep in mind here is that the infamous 0.6% mortality rate that has been thrown around by everyone saying that seasonal flu isn’t nearly as fatal as Covid-19 is based on assumptions by everyone involved. Granted, they may be educated assumptions, but they are still assumptions. That number is assuming that approximately 3,253,000 people will actually get the flu and never go to the Dr and never get tested (that’s about 1% of the US population). Now go back to the Princess Cruise that was stopped outside California. How many of those people never got Covid-19 (I believe it was 83%)? How many that got it were asymptomatic (I believe that was 50% asymptomatic)? I can’t find the links right now and my memory may be off, but I think those numbers are fairly close. All I’m saying is, I don’t think this is as bad as everyone is saying it is. It’s not good, but it’s not the end of the world. Remember, cruise lines are full of high-risk patients (elderly), so the actual infection of the general population will be much lower.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200405-sitrep-76-covid-19.pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/testing-sc-data-covid-19

My take on Covid-19, 3/30/2020

Time for my Covid-19 review for 3/27/2020. I’m not going to write all the extra shit this time because I’m apparently not allowed to have a different opinion than the “experts”… even though more and more experts are starting to say what I’ve been thinking/saying for weeks.

My numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed cases for any of these, including the seasonal influenza. My argument is that while this Covid-19 is new to humans, the seasonal flu is still more fatal. My argument is also that many people will get seasonal influenza and/or this Covid-19 and never know it, never get reported and added to the numbers. Per the numbers below, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza than you are if you get Covid-19.

There are a lot of things to consider: when did this actually start? How many people that got “the flu” in December, January, February, and March actually had Covid-19? Read through this link, he cites at least one expert. Just something to keep in mind as we evaluate what’s going on.
https://www.amgreatness.com/2020/03/19/dangerous-curves/

Now for the numbers: there are over 242,330 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with approximately 17,932 deaths from the seasonal flu. This does not count Covid-19, which did not show up on the standard flu test. There are several reasons, IMO, that this is important: Out of the 1,208,294 people that went to the Dr. and were tested since September 29th for “flu like symptoms”, ONLY 20.1% of them actually tested positive for the flu. How many of those cases were actually Covid-19?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

As of today, The P&I Mortality rate for the 2019-2020 Flu season is 7.4%. This is from the CDC. They only update this page once weekly, this number is for week ending 3/21/2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

With 693,224 total cases and 33,106 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 4.78%. This is from the WHO as of 3/30/2020, 10:00 CET.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200330-sitrep-70-covid-19.pdf

With 776,105 total cases and 37,126 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 4.78%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 3/30/2020, 21:02 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 140,904 total cases and 2,405 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 1.71%. This is from the CDC as of 3/30/2020, 16:00 EST.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

With 159,689 total cases and 2,951 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 1.84%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 3/30/2020, 21:02 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 925 total cases and 18 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 1.95%. This is from SC DHEC as of 3/30/2020, 16:00 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

Take precautions, wash your hands, sanitize stuff, avoid close contact and large groups of people, put away supplies to survive at least a month at home, but don’t be stupid.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html

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Odds of survival are good if you just practice good hygiene and you don’t have pre-existing conditions that make your odds worse.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html

I realize that bad shit is happening in places because of this virus, so we have to do our part to not overload the services available. If you think you may have the flu, or Covid-19, check the symptoms (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html) and give your Dr. a call before you run to the ER and possibly infect others.

Yes, the flu sucks, but as of right now your odds of making it through this virus are better than they are for the regular seasonal influenza.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200330-sitrep-70-covid-19.pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19