Time for my Covid-19 review for 4/6/2020. I’m done with my justifications for my opinions, but I’m still tracking the numbers, and actually putting thought into what they might mean.

Here’s a rather long video from a bona-fide expert. Basically saying that the quarantines and lockdowns were not the smart choice for anyone other than high-risk patients. He’s saying that if life had continued as normal for everyone (except the high-risk groups) this pandemic would have most likely died out in about 4 weeks. Go ahead and watch the video, I’ll wait.
https://kfyi.iheart.com/content/2020-04-04-dr-fauci-vs-this-guy-professor-knut-wittkowski-on-the-coronavirus/

My numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed cases, including for seasonal influenza. My argument is that while Covid-19 is new to humans, the seasonal flu is still more fatal. My argument is also that many people will get seasonal influenza and/or Covid-19 and never know it, never get reported, and never get added to the numbers. Per the confirmed numbers below, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza than you are if you get Covid-19.

Now for the numbers:

As of March 28, 2020 there were over 246,842 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with a P&I Mortality rate of 8.2%, meaning approximately 20,241 deaths from the seasonal flu. This does not count Covid-19, which did not show up on the standard flu test (if you scroll through the link, you’ll see what types of virus they identify and include in these numbers). There are several reasons, IMO, that this is important: Out of the 1,270,617 people that went to the Dr. and were tested since September 29th for “flu like symptoms”, ONLY 19.4% of them actually tested positive for the flu. How many of those other 80.6% of cases were actually Covid-19?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

With 1,133,758 total cases and 62,784 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 5.54%. This is from the WHO as of 4/5/2020, 10:00 CET.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200405-sitrep-76-covid-19.pdf

With 1,296,934 total cases and 71,263 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 5.49%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 4/6/2020, 15:44 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 304,826 total cases and 7,616 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 2.50%. This is from the CDC as of 4/5/2020, 16:00 EST.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

With 339,131 total cases and 9,689 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 2.86%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 4/6/2020, 15:44 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 2,049 total cases and 44 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 2.15%. This is from SC DHEC as of 4/5/2020, 16:00 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

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I realize that bad shit is happening in places because of this virus, so we have to do our part to not overload the services available. If you think you may have the flu, or Covid-19, check the symptoms (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html) and give your Dr. a call before you run to the ER and possibly infect others.

You also need to keep in mind that while the mortality for Covid-19 is creeping upward, only a fraction of people going to the Dr with symptoms are getting tested. The only people that are being tested are essentially the ones being admitted to the hospitals because of their illness. This means that only the critically ill are being added to the numbers. That makes a HUGE difference in the mortality rate since the ones being added to the overall number are the ones more likely to die from it.

Now, here’s a crazy thought experiment. Remember the number of people that went to the Dr for flu-like symptoms but didn’t test positive for the flu? That was 1,023,775 people with flu-like symptoms, but not the flu. If even 25% of those people had Covid-19 (255,944) and survived, the mortality rate for Covid-19 drops to 1.6%. If 75% of those people had Covid-19 (767,831) and survided, the mortality rate for Covid-19 drops to 0.88%. The thing to keep in mind here is that the infamous 0.6% mortality rate that has been thrown around by everyone saying that seasonal flu isn’t nearly as fatal as Covid-19 is based on assumptions by everyone involved. Granted, they may be educated assumptions, but they are still assumptions. That number is assuming that approximately 3,253,000 people will actually get the flu and never go to the Dr and never get tested (that’s about 1% of the US population). Now go back to the Princess Cruise that was stopped outside California. How many of those people never got Covid-19 (I believe it was 83%)? How many that got it were asymptomatic (I believe that was 50% asymptomatic)? I can’t find the links right now and my memory may be off, but I think those numbers are fairly close. All I’m saying is, I don’t think this is as bad as everyone is saying it is. It’s not good, but it’s not the end of the world. Remember, cruise lines are full of high-risk patients (elderly), so the actual infection of the general population will be much lower.