I’m a couple days later than normal, I still have to work and it’s been heavy the last couple weeks, finally got a minute to breathe. So… time for my Covid-19 review for 5/14/2020.

My primary issues with this pandemic are: 1) People are stupid. Mention of a pandemic and you can’t find toilet paper or cleaning supplies anywhere for several weeks/months… did those people not wipe their ass or clean their stuff prior? 2) The government has absolutely ZERO authority to “lock down” the country. They can recommend, even strongly urge, people to stay home, but they cannot legally force any healthy American to do it, period. I’ve seen other articles, but I don’t have all day to scroll for the links, so here’s just one: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down Wisconsin’s stay-at-home order that closed businesses to limit spread of coronavirus.

The numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed/reported cases, including for seasonal influenza. Per the numbers below, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza than you are if you get Covid-19. I admit that Covid-19 may be more contagious because it is new to humans and we have no natural immunity to it, but that is why herd immunity is so important. When enough healthy people get it, recover, and develop immunity while the at risk population self isolates, then the virus won’t really be able to continue to spread because the vast majority of potential hosts will have already developed the immunity (that’s the whole point of herd immunity). My opinion really hasn’t changed toward doom and gloom, even with all the “horror stories” I’ve been reading about this virus. Largely because I’m fairly certain my family has already had it. Read my previous posts for more on that.

As of May 2, 2020 there were 248,486 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with a P&I Mortality rate of 7.4%, with approximately 18,388 deaths from the seasonal flu. This does not count Covid-19, which does not show up on the standard flu test (if you scroll through the links, you’ll see what types of virus they identify and include in these numbers). There are several reasons, IMO, that this is important: Out of the 1,373,230 people that went to the Dr. and were tested since September 29th for “flu like symptoms”, ONLY 18.1% of them actually tested positive for the flu. How many of those other 81.9% of cases were actually Covid-19? This data is hard to follow. The mortality rate given this week means many of the deaths previously attributed to pneumonia and influenza have been reclassified as some other cause. The number of approximate deaths is lower this week than it was last week. We should expect this type of number change from Covid-19 as well, and the “probable” death numbers below reflect this change while the other Covid-19 trackers are not accounting for these revisions.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

With 4,170,424 total cases and 287,399 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.9%. This is from the WHO as of 5/13/2020, 10:00 CET. The mortality numbers are dropping here (was 7.12% last week).
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200513-covid-19-sitrep-114.pdf

With 4,471,968 total cases and 299,619 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 6.7%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 5/14/2020, 15:50 GMT. The mortality numbers are dropping here as well (was 6.94% last week).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 1,322,054 total cases and 79,634 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 6.02%. This is from the WHO as of 5/13/2020, 10:00 CET. The mortality numbers are dropping here as well (was 6.9% last week).
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200513-covid-19-sitrep-114.pdf

With 1,364,061 total cases and 82,246 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 6.03%. This is from the CDC as of 5/13/2020, 16:00 EST. If you go to this link and click on “About the Data” you’ll see that these numbers include “both confirmed and probable cases and deaths”. Keep this in mind when you look at the next section.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

The reason I think this is important to track is because while the numbers above include confirmed and probable cases, there are no comments about updating the numbers as information is received, but this provisional list says “Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS.” This makes this list much more believable as it is revised as new information is received. So, the “provisional” numbers state that there are 56,977 total Covid-19 deaths as of 5/14/2020. If we use this number, that drops the mortality to 4.18%.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw

With 1,435,234 total cases and 85,408 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 5.95%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 5/14/2020, 15:52 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 8,030 total cases and 362 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 4.51%. This is from SC DHEC as of 5/13/2020, 17:01 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

Here are the “provisional” numbers from the CDC… With 198 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 2.47%. This is from CDC as of 5/14/2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3s70TDgF_-zg7PdxGAB7lia7lugeLv31xpi0LHYHHXL0c1Zha-UK_CYaw

So, the major takeaway today is that the “provisional” numbers are updated as information is received, but the WHO, worldometer, etc numbers are not updated. I’m going to use the “provisional” numbers because they’re correcting assumptions as they get confirmations, rather than just running with the assumptions.

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Another thing we need to be reminded of when we’re looking at the numbers is that not all patients presenting with Covid-19 symptoms are getting tested for Covid-19. Most of them are not, whereas pretty much everyone that goes to the dr with flu-like symptoms gets tested for the flu. That brings me back to the 81.9% of people that got tested for influenza that came back negative (1,124,744)… how many of them were Covid-19? Run those numbers on your own, but if even half of them (562,372) were actually Covid-19 patients, that drops the mortality for Covid-19 (2.96%). This is only “counting” the people that were sick enough to actually go to the dr. We won’t have any idea what the real numbers might actually be until they start screening for antibodies. I also haven’t looked at previous years numbers for seasonal influenza to see what percentage of people that got tested came back positive. Maybe I’ll try to do that next week. I’m curious how this years seasonal influenza patients/tests compare to previous, non-pandemic years.