My take on Covid-19, 3/27/2020

Time for my Covid-19 review for 3/27/2020, my main point is still to not panic.

Yes, you could get sick, and it could suck. My numbers that I’m going off of are only confirmed cases for any of these, including the seasonal influenza. My argument is that while this Covid-19 is new to humans, the seasonal flu is still more fatal. My argument is also that many people will get seasonal influenza and/or this Covid-19 and never know it, never get reported and added to the numbers. Per the numbers below, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza than you are if you get Covid-19. Yes, a lot of people COULD end up getting Covid-19, which would mean the total number of deaths COULD be extremely high, but again, you are more likely to die if you get seasonal influenza. There are also a lot of other things to consider, when did this actually start? How many people that got “the flu” in December, January, February, and March actually had Covid-19? Read through this link, he cites at least one expert. Just something to keep in mind as we evaluate what’s going on.
https://www.amgreatness.com/2020/03/19/dangerous-curves/

Now for the numbers: there are over 242,330 cases of seasonal influenza since 9/29/2019 in the US with approximately 17,932 deaths from the seasonal flu. This does not count Covid-19, which did not show up on the standard flu test. There are several reasons, IMO, that this is important: Out of the 1,208,294 people that went to the Dr. and were tested since September 29th for “flu like symptoms”, ONLY 20.1% of them actually tested positive for the flu. How many of those cases were actually Covid-19? See above. As I said previously, I know someone that I’m now convinced actually had Covid-19 in January/February. Their symptoms matched what is now known about the new flu and it was not being tested for every time a person went to the Dr. for it in January or February (and it’s still not being tested for unless they need to be hospitalized for their symptoms). With all of this in mind, I’m just as concerned about seasonal influenza as I am about Covid-19, which is as concerned as I am about it every year.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

As of today, The P&I Mortality rate for the 2019-2020 Flu season is 7.4%. This is from the CDC. They only update this page once weekly, this number is for week ending 3/21/2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

With 462,684 total cases and 20,834 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 4.50%. This is from the WHO as of 3/26/2020, 10:00 CET.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf

With 575,009 total cases and 26,369 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate Globally is 4.58%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 3/27/2020, 17:17 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With 85,356 total cases and 1,246 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 1.45%. This is from the CDC as of 3/27/2020, 16:00 EST.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

With 93,440 total cases and 1,385 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in the US is 1.48%. This is from the “worldometer” as of 3/27/2020, 17:18 GMT.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

With 456 total cases and 9 total deaths, the Covid-19 Mortality rate in South Carolina is 1.97%. This is from SC DHEC as of 3/27/2020, 12:41 EST.
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

Take precautions, wash your hands, sanitize stuff, avoid close contact and large groups of people, put away supplies to survive at least a month at home, but for Heaven’s sake, DON’T PANIC!!!
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html

Odds of survival are pretty good if you just practice good hygiene and you don’t have pre-existing conditions that make your odds worse… so DON’T PANIC!!
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html

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I realize that bad shit is happening in places because of this virus, so we have to do our part to not overload the services available. If you think you may have the flu, or Covid-19, check the symptoms (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html) and give your Dr. a call before you run to the ER and possibly infect others (or hell, you may not have been infected but you could get infected by running to the ER where the sick people are, use that mushy stuff in your head to make decisions).

DON’T PANIC!!! Yes, the flu sucks, but as of right now your odds of making it through this virus are better than they are for the regular seasonal influenza.

A little more to clarify my position. I work from home, I’m pretty isolated all the time, so this quarantine doesn’t really affect me. Having said that, I think that doing the quarantine and then restricting business hours is actually creating a bit more of a hazard. Rather than people trying to spread out their shopping trips throughout the day, they are forced to be in the stores at the same times as everyone else. People should have supplies, but store visits are still required for the vast majority of the population. I’m not saying we shouldn’t take precautions, but I personally think we’ve gone a little too far… then again, we’ll never really know if we went too far, but we will definitely know if we didn’t go far enough (stole that from someone else). But still, DON’T PANIC!

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/monitoring-testing-covid-19

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